The recent early rumour that ADM is selling its futures FCM is sure to be one of several announcements this year of FCM’s coming up for sale. The difference for me this year is whether we will see tech first companies like Ninja Trader and to some extent Robinhood in the past continue to buy their way into futures clearing.

Typically it has been a question for me as to whether it is easier for an FCM to become a tech company or for a tech company to become an FCM. My answer used to be definitely the latter. But now that companies like RJO in Chicago are acting awfully like a tech company, the answer is not so simple for me anymore.

More interesting for me is whether some of the Coinbases of the world will continue to expand into futures including whether they might become an FCM’s following the CME into that space.

I do strongly anticipate we will see our ecosystem be disrupted at a new level in 2025 where any provider with strong revenue and access to volume will be able to enter new aspects of the market value chain. Interesting times ahead.